Sat, Feb 2, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Arizona Coyotes 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 114 | 111 | 00 | 233 |
| SJS | 010 | 214 | 09 | 12 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:56ARIConor GarlandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 12:09SJSKevin LabancAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 12:53SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Timo Meier, Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 7:10ARIJosh ArchibaldAssists: Mario Kempe, Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:14SJSBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:53SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:30ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P1 19:55ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:16SJSTim Heed: Holding2 min
- P2 18:47SJSJustin Braun: Holding2 min
- P3 1:46SJSBrent Burns: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:07SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Hinostroza10:23
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Keller11:22
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Weal – Fischer – Garland6:42
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse9:26
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson13:30
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Oesterle15:18
xG 0.64–0.57 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Connauton – Lyubushkin9:07
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Sorensen – Labanc6:53
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Meier9:35
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl10:47
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Radil6:55
xG 0.01–1.02 (1%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Simek12:26
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Burns – Dillon2:11
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon12:05
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).