Mon, Feb 4, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Arizona Coyotes 4, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 114 | 113 | 215 | 442 |
| DAL | 010 | 19 | 410 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:39ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Nick Cousins, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:36DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:54ARIKevin ConnautonAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 2:28DALJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 3:04DALRadek FaksaPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 3:39DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Jason Dickinson, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 6:49ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Lawson Crouse, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 7:50ARIAlex GalchenyukAssists: Nick Cousins, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
- P3 12:28DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:12ARIAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:35ARIRichard Panik: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:35DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:07DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:02ARIMario Kempe: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 17:40DALBrett Ritchie: Boarding5 min
- P2 17:40DALBrett Ritchie: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:52ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:52ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 4:29DALTaylor Fedun: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:34DALBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Hinostroza10:11
xG 1.38–0.53 (72%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse8:47
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Keller9:07
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Weal – Fischer – Garland8:14
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Oesterle9:28
xG 1.34–0.45 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Connauton – Oesterle2:29
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin2:59
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 3–4goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin2:56
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Spezza – Cogliano – Dickinson2:42
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Cogliano – Hintz2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Janmark2:30
xG 0.03–0.10 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Lindell4:37
xG 0.17–0.12 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen5:33
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Fedun – Oleksiak11:12
xG 0.05–0.26 (16%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).