Tue, Feb 5, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 113 | 06 | 17 | 226 |
| NSH | 016 | 319 | 212 | 547 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:59ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Alex Goligoski, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 2:58NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 7:45NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 13:37NSHRyan EllisGWGAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 4:19ARIDerek StepanAssists: Jordan Oesterle · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 13:41NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Colton Sissons, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 17:10NSHRoman JosiENAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:12ARIChristian Fischer: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:07NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:27NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:41ARIRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:17ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:20NSHFilip Forsberg: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Kempe
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Hinostroza9:34
xG 1.27–0.93 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Weal – Fischer – Garland4:12
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Kempe – Crouse – Garland2:56
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Keller2:56
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson10:54
xG 0.79–0.69 (53%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Lyubushkin2:08
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Capobianco2:42
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Sissons – Hartman8:31
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Grimaldi – Gaudreau8:41
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Fiala9:03
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:16
xG 0.54–1.22 (31%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:27
xG 1.40–0.67 (68%)attempts 29–8goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Weber10:29
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis12:41
xG 0.63–0.90 (41%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).