Thu, Feb 7, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 310 | 115 | 432 |
| DET | 114 | 011 | 214 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:19DETGustav NyquistAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 2:04VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: William Karlsson, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 7:08VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Paul Stastny, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 10:22VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 4:41DETMichael RasmussenPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mike Green · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 11:07VGKBrayden McNabbGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:57DETThomas VanekAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:47VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:14DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:00VGKPaul Stastny: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:07VGKNate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:45VGKMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:08DETFrans Nielsen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault5:14
xG 1.02–0.17 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch11:18
xG 1.14–0.44 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Zykov4:26
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Zykov5:50
xG 0.23–0.24 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller13:11
xG 1.29–0.51 (72%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore13:14
xG 1.09–0.58 (65%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- McNabb – Schmidt13:21
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin7:15
xG 0.58–0.70 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Vanek – Mantha7:08
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- de la Rose – Ehn – Rasmussen7:22
xG 0.29–0.64 (31%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Athanasiou7:03
xG 0.09–0.56 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser14:34
xG 1.07–0.87 (55%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Cholowski13:18
xG 0.25–0.64 (28%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green11:34
xG 0.16–1.12 (12%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).