Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 216 | 09 | 16 | 11 | 432 |
| MTL | 115 | 19 | 114 | 00 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Jeff Petry, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 2:20TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 4:42TORNikita ZaitsevAssists: Par Lindholm, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 1:13MTLTomas TatarAssists: Shea Weber, Carey Price · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 7:24MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Max Domi, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 8:35TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Andreas Johnsson, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 2:17TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:53MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:58TORJohn Tavares: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:41MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:25MTLJonathan Drouin: Interference2 min
- P2 18:08TORZach Hyman: Interference2 min
- P3 5:37TORAuston Matthews: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:28TORNikita Zaitsev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Tavares – Matthews2:11
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Gauthier – Lindholm5:52
xG 0.21–0.03 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews10:23
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander5:55
xG 0.03–0.05 (41%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev12:19
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–16goals 2–2
- Muzzin – Rielly11:36
xG 0.64–0.47 (58%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Dermott8:36
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:13
xG 0.57–0.11 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin11:04
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Tatar – Shaw – Domi12:00
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Peca5:32
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 2–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Kulak12:18
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Petry – Benn2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Reilly12:44
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).