Sat, Feb 9, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 5, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 212 | 17 | 212 | 531 |
| EDM | 05 | 113 | 15 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:39SJSKevin LabancAssists: Joe Thornton, Marcus Sorensen · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 12:18SJSEvander KaneAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 6:10SJSKevin LabancPPGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 12:00EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Alex Chiasson · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 1:36SJSKevin LabancAssists: Joe Thornton, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 4:24SJSTomas HertlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–1
- P3 14:03EDMZack KassianAssists: Connor McDavid, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:33SJSBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:33EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P2 2:48EDMZack Kassian: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26EDMAdam Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:06EDMOscar Klefbom: Interference2 min
- P2 10:28SJSTimo Meier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:51EDMLeon Draisaitl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:06EDMMilan Lucic: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Donskoi – Hertl10:36
xG 0.61–0.37 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Kane – Goodrow – Gambrell5:36
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Meier10:08
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:41
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic2:22
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon13:50
xG 0.36–0.35 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Burns – Simek15:04
xG 0.67–0.74 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Malone – Kassian4:00
xG 0.43–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid5:34
xG 0.24–0.01 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Puljujarvi4:21
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid2:33
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Klefbom16:13
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Manning – Gravel8:45
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Russell – Nurse17:00
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).