Sun, Feb 10, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 19 | 29 | 329 |
| BUF | 014 | 113 | 09 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:01WPGAndrew CoppSHAssists: Bryan Little, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:01BUFJack EichelAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 16:05WPGBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:53WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:27WPGJoe Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:34WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:38BUFLawrence Pilut: Holding2 min
- P2 1:11WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:57WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:59WPGBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Tanev8:07
xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton6:33
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Little – Roslovic – Laine10:12
xG 0.17–0.45 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor14:08
xG 0.42–0.97 (30%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey15:48
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot14:04
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Myers – Morrow11:44
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons8:54
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel10:03
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Rodrigues – Thompson7:33
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Mittelstadt8:47
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Dahlin12:14
xG 0.65–0.44 (60%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- McCabe – Pilut14:22
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen15:22
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).