Tue, Feb 12, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Detroit Red Wings 3, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 17 | 111 | 327 |
| NSH | 019 | 210 | 05 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:05DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Nick Jensen, Christoffer Ehn · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 7:13DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 7:49NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:32NSHP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 4:08DETAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Luke Glendening, Nick Jensen · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 17:13DETFrans Nielsen: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:51DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min
- P2 1:58DETJacob de la Rose: Broken stick2 min
- P2 4:11NSHKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:27NSHP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:00DETAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:00NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:25NSHViktor Arvidsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:04DETDanny DeKeyser: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Rasmussen4:59
xG 0.01–0.01 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Mantha – Larkin11:13
xG 0.48–0.62 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Helm5:37
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Ehn7:01
xG 0.59–1.02 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Ericsson – Green3:46
xG 0.01–0.01 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green10:03
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson10:22
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:21
xG 1.41–0.64 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 1–2
- Bonino – Smith – Fiala9:40
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Turris – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi7:07
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Boyle – Sissons – Hartman5:41
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:42
xG 1.26–0.46 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Weber7:19
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis16:25
xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).