Tue, Feb 12, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Arizona Coyotes 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 06 | 210 | 310 | 526 |
| VGK | 016 | 218 | 09 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:38ARIJordan OesterlePPAssists: Derek Stepan, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 14:00ARIAlex GalchenyukAssists: Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 14:29VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Cody Eakin, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 19:30VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:21ARINick CousinsGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 17:48ARIJosh ArchibaldAssists: Derek Stepan, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 19:03ARIRichard PanikENAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:25ARIMichael Bunting: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:36VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:33ARIKevin Connauton: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:40VGKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:49VGKPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Fischer – Garland7:32
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Hinostroza11:45
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Archibald – Bunting – Crouse7:55
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Keller12:19
xG 0.30–0.90 (25%)attempts 6–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Oesterle2:16
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson15:31
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Connauton – Oesterle13:24
xG 0.29–0.58 (34%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:22
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch14:01
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare7:03
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Pirri – Eakin – Lindberg10:52
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt15:23
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 24–5goals 1–0
- Merrill – Miller15:27
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – Theodore12:07
xG 0.34–0.57 (37%)attempts 6–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).