Thu, Feb 14, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 112 | 110 | 435 |
| WPG | 18 | 09 | 08 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:21COLDominic ToninatoAssists: A.J. Greer, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 10:29COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 10:53WPGBrandon TanevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 6:12COLJ.T. CompherSHAssists: Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 16:21COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Matt Nieto, Matt Calvert · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P2 1:33WPGBrandon Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 4:49COLSamuel Girard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:33COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:47WPGBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:47COLA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:14WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:09COLSven Andrighetto: Interference2 min
- P3 16:58WPGBrandon Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:49COLMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:49WPGJoe Morrow: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:31
xG 1.03–0.64 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Toninato – Andrighetto – Greer5:13
xG 0.79–0.56 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost7:25
xG 0.32–0.19 (62%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto9:44
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard11:44
xG 1.12–0.61 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Barrie – Graves9:15
xG 0.48–0.38 (55%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Johnson – Barrie4:13
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Tanev8:56
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Little – Roslovic – Laine9:39
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:05
xG 0.63–0.94 (40%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Copp – Lemieux – Appleton6:42
xG 0.37–0.79 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot15:20
xG 1.08–0.05 (95%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Myers – Morrissey2:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey15:13
xG 0.56–0.97 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).