Sat, Feb 16, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 09 | 04 | 020 |
| TBL | 08 | 012 | 317 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:16TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 3:41TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 16:46TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:43MTLBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:49TBLDan Girardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:01MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:01TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:52MTLPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:54MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:18MTLDale Weise: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:45MTLAndrew Shaw: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:45TBLAnthony Cirelli: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:45TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi10:22
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Tatar – Shaw – Domi11:50
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin11:13
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Thompson – Weise – Deslauriers7:15
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Reilly15:42
xG 0.54–0.59 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Benn – Kulak15:16
xG 0.14–0.51 (22%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete12:51
xG 0.25–1.05 (19%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Gourde – Point13:50
xG 1.10–0.18 (86%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph8:30
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli9:32
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Palat10:10
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak14:50
xG 0.80–0.09 (90%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Stralman – Sergachev13:42
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Girardi – Hedman14:12
xG 0.56–0.99 (36%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).