Sun, Feb 17, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 09 | 24 | 323 |
| DET | 014 | 112 | 012 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:48PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Sean Couturier · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 14:49DETDarren HelmAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–1
- P3 2:11PHIIvan ProvorovGWGAssists: Phil Varone, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 18:34PHIOskar LindblomENAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.74 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:53DETAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:53PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:29DETTyler Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:10PHIClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:42PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier2:43
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny5:53
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom7:14
xG 0.21–0.62 (26%)attempts 3–13goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick11:00
xG 0.37–1.19 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Provorov – Myers3:38
xG 0.11–0.12 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere7:56
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Myers2:06
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:01
xG 1.20–0.59 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Vanek – Helm9:07
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Ehn8:12
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Rasmussen5:17
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green17:35
xG 1.45–0.47 (76%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Daley – Hronek10:48
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser16:05
xG 0.83–0.59 (59%)attempts 16–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).