Mon, Feb 18, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Arizona Coyotes 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 211 | 010 | 229 |
| CGY | 17 | 213 | 213 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34CGYDerek RyanAssists: Mark Giordano, Garnet Hathaway · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 6:27ARIConor GarlandAssists: Nick Cousins · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:20CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 14:21ARIJordan WealPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:47CGYAustin CzarnikGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 5:48CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 18:48CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Michael Frolik, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:37CGYMark Giordano: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:39CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:59CGYGarnet Hathaway: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:04ARIAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P3 13:39ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Kempe – Hinostroza10:06
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Weal – Fischer – Garland5:22
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Weal – Galchenyuk – Fischer3:08
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Garland – Keller4:20
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin11:42
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson2:14
xG 0.01–0.17 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Hjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson10:43
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk10:00
xG 0.91–0.32 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik6:57
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan8:07
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Lindholm7:44
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson13:58
xG 1.23–0.51 (71%)attempts 23–14goals 3–1
- Hamonic – Hanifin17:33
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Prout – Kylington13:27
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).