Mon, Feb 18, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Ottawa Senators 7, Chicago Blackhawks 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 416 | 112 | 210 | 738 |
| CHI | 515 | 216 | 111 | 842 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:06OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 2:40OTTRudolfs BalcersAssists: Chris Tierney, Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 3:54CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 5:07CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dominik Kahun, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P1 7:55OTTColin WhiteAssists: Mark Stone, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
- P1 12:36CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P1 13:22CHIDylan StromeAssists: Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P1 14:53CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Dylan Sikura, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P1 17:46OTTMark StoneAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Colin White · Snap, 0.24 xG4–5
- P2 1:32OTTColin WhiteAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.08 xG5–5
- P2 8:19CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–6
- P2 10:31CHIGustav ForslingAssists: Brandon Saad, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.05 xG5–7
- P3 3:51CHIJonathan ToewsPPGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–8
- P3 9:01OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Cody Ceci, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–8
- P3 14:43OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.21 xG7–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:15CHISlater Koekkoek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 3:23OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:48OTTDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P2 8:43OTTBobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:43CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:14OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:10CHIDominik Kahun: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:07OTTDylan DeMelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 18:20CHISlater Koekkoek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – White – Tkachuk10:34
xG 1.52–0.37 (80%)attempts 17–8goals 3–1
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau10:15
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel9:12
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Boedker – Tierney – Balcers8:52
xG 0.39–1.25 (24%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lajoie4:47
xG 0.58–0.38 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Ceci – Chabot14:40
xG 0.94–0.75 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 3–0
- DeMelo – Harpur2:20
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Caggiula14:06
xG 1.46–0.73 (67%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kahun10:43
xG 0.69–0.49 (59%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Anisimov – Saad – Sikura8:19
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Kruger – Hayden – Perlini6:47
xG 0.06–0.44 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Dahlstrom11:12
xG 1.28–0.58 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Keith – Forsling3:06
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Forsling6:20
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).