Tue, Feb 19, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 116 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 335 |
| EDM | 08 | 07 | 215 | 07 | 1 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:12ARIJosh ArchibaldAssists: Derek Stepan, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P3 3:27EDMAdam LarssonAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 10:37ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Mario Kempe · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:49EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
- 2. ARI Nick Cousins stopped
- 3. EDM Leon Draisaitl scored
- 4. ARI Alex Galchenyuk scored
- 5. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 6. ARI Clayton Keller stopped
- 7. EDM Alex Chiasson stopped
- 8. ARI Vinnie Hinostroza scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:47ARIMario Kempe: Holding2 min
- P1 12:06EDMMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:24EDMAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:15EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P3 3:58EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:12ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Interference2 min
- P3 6:57ARIJosh Archibald: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Kempe – Hinostroza11:42
xG 1.41–0.58 (71%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Stepan – Archibald – Crouse10:03
xG 0.57–0.66 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Weal – Galchenyuk – Fischer9:02
xG 0.11–0.42 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Cousins – Garland – Keller10:56
xG 0.41–1.04 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun12:50
xG 0.92–0.66 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Oesterle2:33
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Oesterle3:10
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Rattie – Cave7:17
xG 1.01–0.12 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rieder – Cave2:43
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Chiasson2:34
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Malone – Currie4:01
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom14:42
xG 1.75–0.41 (81%)attempts 27–11goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse14:01
xG 0.50–1.05 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Sekera – Benning11:02
xG 0.42–0.97 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).