Fri, Feb 22, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 216 | 19 | 010 | 335 |
| DET | 09 | 18 | 111 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:56MINLuke KuninAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 18:53MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 1:35DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 10:09MINEric StaalPPGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Luke Kunin · Snap, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 3:06DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:59DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:55DETAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:32MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:27DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:56MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Greenway11:02
xG 1.30–0.43 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown7:42
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Parise – Granlund – Aberg10:55
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Donato – Eriksson Ek – Kunin9:38
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Brodin16:49
xG 1.45–0.70 (67%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon21:17
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Bitetto – Hunt8:17
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Athanasiou – Rasmussen2:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Rasmussen3:51
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Mantha3:17
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Vanek – Helm2:31
xG 0.02–0.16 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- DeKeyser – Hronek13:33
xG 0.57–0.66 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Green19:18
xG 0.84–1.08 (44%)attempts 17–14goals 0–2
- Daley – Ericsson12:53
xG 0.14–1.23 (10%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).