Fri, Feb 22, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 111 | 39 | 531 |
| CHI | 016 | 213 | 115 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:09COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 10:48CHIDylan StromePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 18:05COLJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 19:31CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 3:36COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 10:00CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 14:38COLJ.T. CompherGWGAssists: Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 19:26COLCarl SoderbergENAssists: Matt Calvert, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:15CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:14CHIChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:41CHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:30COLTyson Barrie: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:45CHISlater Koekkoek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:41COLTyson Jost: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:32COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:17COLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – MacKinnon – Rantanen5:51
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Landeskog – Compher4:19
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Nieto – Rantanen5:45
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Calvert – Landeskog – Jost4:25
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Graves2:35
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov7:38
xG 0.12–0.16 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov4:35
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Caggiula14:35
xG 0.98–0.58 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat2:44
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kahun9:14
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden2:36
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Gustafsson17:12
xG 1.08–0.66 (62%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Murphy – Koekkoek4:43
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Jokiharju6:10
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).