Sat, Feb 23, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 115 | 18 | 233 |
| BUF | 213 | 113 | 212 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:51BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:28WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 19:29BUFRasmus DahlinPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 4:16WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Christian Djoos, Michal Kempny · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 5:43BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Matt Hunwick, Conor Sheary · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:04BUFSam ReinhartENAssists: Carter Hutton · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:53BUFVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:02WSHJakub Vrana: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:42WSHCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:56BUFNathan Beaulieu: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:44WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:26WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky9:00
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana7:05
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Stephenson8:31
xG 0.08–0.72 (10%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:07
xG 0.24–1.25 (16%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Djoos7:14
xG 0.17–0.49 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov17:08
xG 0.41–0.73 (36%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Carlson – Djoos3:41
xG 0.02–0.44 (5%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Reinhart – Rodrigues8:30
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel7:09
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Larsson – Wilson – Girgensons9:27
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Sobotka – O'Regan – Thompson8:03
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen15:19
xG 1.53–0.17 (90%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Beaulieu13:10
xG 0.96–0.28 (77%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Bogosian – Dahlin13:57
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).