Sat, Feb 23, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 09 | 28 | 221 |
| NYR | 315 | 09 | 210 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 8:54NYRRyan StromePPAssists: Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 14:23NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P3 2:20NJDKenny AgostinoUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 11:08NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 12:59NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:41NYRRyan StromeENAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:48NJDBrett Seney: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:04NYRBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P1 6:55NJDDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:52NJDKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:52NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:54NYRBoo Nieves: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:54NJDBrett Seney: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:07NJDKurtis Gabriel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:40NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:08NJDEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:08NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hischier10:27
xG 0.48–0.47 (50%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Stafford – Rooney – Anderson5:44
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Agostino – Gabriel – Seney4:20
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood8:43
xG 0.03–0.81 (4%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Mueller9:59
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Gryba – Severson2:00
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson11:39
xG 0.40–0.91 (31%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Vesey11:47
xG 0.93–0.23 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Fast – Strome – Namestnikov8:58
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Andersson – Chytil6:25
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pionk10:16
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo2:07
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo10:36
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).