Sat, Feb 23, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 5, Nashville Predators 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 210 | 26 | 521 |
| NSH | 010 | 010 | 018 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 14:41COLAlexander KerfootPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 18:02COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Samuel Girard, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–0
- P3 9:59COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 16:42COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Carl Soderberg · Slap, 0.03 xG5–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:19NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:40COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P1 19:33NSHRyan Ellis: Interference2 min
- P2 4:05COLSven Andrighetto: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:51COLRyan Graves: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:23NSHDan Hamhuis: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 16:31NSHYannick Weber: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:31COLSheldon Dries: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:14COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:04NSHMattias Ekholm: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:44COLSven Andrighetto: Embellishment2 min
- P3 9:44NSHYannick Weber: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:53COLMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:14NSHBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Agozzino – Greer – Dries7:04
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Andrighetto – Compher6:06
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Calvert – Landeskog – Jost8:58
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:15
xG 0.06–0.74 (7%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Barrie – Girard2:08
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Graves6:58
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard13:01
xG 0.31–0.59 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson4:15
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Bonino – Grimaldi – Fiala2:06
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Fiala6:11
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Boyle – Bonino – Hartman5:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm11:20
xG 0.84–0.03 (97%)attempts 21–1goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm2:55
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber4:01
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).