Sun, Feb 24, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 316 | 116 | 537 |
| DET | 215 | 13 | 05 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46SJSTim HeedAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 14:39DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Mike Green · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 19:23DETGustav NyquistAssists: Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 8:00DETMike GreenAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 13:50SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Timo Meier, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 15:50SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P2 16:45SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:00SJSJoe PavelskiENAssists: Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.59 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:00SJSBrenden Dillon: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:14DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:20DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:08DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
- P3 12:39SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Labanc – Radil9:54
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Kane – Goodrow – Karlsson3:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Meier14:16
xG 0.80–0.88 (48%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl10:17
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Simek12:49
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Heed8:49
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Braun – Dillon18:19
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Bertuzzi – Larkin13:58
xG 1.18–0.52 (69%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Athanasiou – Mantha10:08
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Abdelkader – Helm – de la Rose2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- de la Rose – Rasmussen – Zadina4:02
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek14:35
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Daley – Ericsson11:58
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Green14:17
xG 0.49–0.54 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).