Mon, Feb 25, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Los Angeles Kings 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 09 | 313 | 01 | 2 | 333 |
| TBL | 26 | 014 | 111 | 03 | 3 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:08TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Braydon Coburn, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 5:20LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Austin Wagner · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 10:30LAKJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Brendan Leipsic · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 11:06LAKAustin WagnerAssists: Trevor Lewis, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 12:04TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 2. LAK Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 6. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
- 7. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 8. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:55LAKDion Phaneuf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 10:26TBLErik Cernak: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:13TBLJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:39LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:47LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:23TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P3 1:32TBLJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:18LAKDustin Brown: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Leipsic – Brodzinski – Kempe7:35
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Toffoli9:05
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Wagner6:19
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:43
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Roy9:16
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 2–2
- LaDue – Walker15:05
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort16:02
xG 0.37–0.41 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Miller12:28
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point13:28
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph4:50
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli8:44
xG 0.22–0.44 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Stralman13:27
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- McDonagh – Cernak16:12
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman11:51
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).