Mon, Feb 25, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Florida Panthers 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 220 | 111 | 11 | 438 |
| COL | 010 | 214 | 114 | 01 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:12COLTyson JostAssists: Patrik Nemeth, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 14:31COLMikko RantanenAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 18:26FLATroy BrouwerAssists: Keith Yandle, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:35FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P3 7:49COLDerick BrassardAssists: Ryan Graves, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 11:57FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Keith Yandle, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:26FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:53FLAJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:41FLAHenrik Borgstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:46COLGabriel Bourque: Interference2 min
- P2 18:33COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Sheahan – Hunt5:28
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Barkov4:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Sheahan2:04
xG 0.03–0.07 (29%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Trocheck3:58
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – McCoshen12:30
xG 1.18–1.02 (54%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Yandle – Weegar14:23
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Pysyk – Ekblad18:23
xG 0.20–0.86 (19%)attempts 9–21goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:07
xG 0.72–0.42 (63%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen3:05
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Calvert – Jost8:23
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Bourque – Andrighetto – Dries4:42
xG 0.08–0.09 (45%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov13:11
xG 1.48–0.53 (74%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Girard17:08
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nemeth2:02
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).