Tue, Feb 26, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Ottawa Senators 2, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 213 | 05 | 05 | 223 |
| WSH | 29 | 417 | 111 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16OTTOscar LindbergAssists: Brian Gibbons, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:10OTTAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Cody Ceci, Christian Jaros · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 16:57WSHTom WilsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 17:50WSHLars EllerAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Brett Connolly · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 2:38WSHJohn CarlsonPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 6:29WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Brooks Orpik, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–4
- P2 9:05WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–5
- P2 10:33WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–6
- P3 0:17WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–7
Penalties (2)
- P1 5:22WSHTravis Boyd: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:00OTTChris Tierney: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaajarvi – Lindberg – Gibbons11:54
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Pageau – Tierney3:45
xG 0.01–0.07 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boedker – Pageau – Tierney2:24
xG 0.01–0.18 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Tierney – Duclair – Tkachuk2:43
xG 0.06–0.36 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Harpur7:06
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Harpur – Wolanin2:29
xG 0.01–0.03 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Wolanin3:03
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson12:17
xG 1.20–0.27 (82%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana14:43
xG 1.14–0.26 (81%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky13:17
xG 0.80–0.53 (60%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Boyd9:52
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny18:33
xG 1.96–0.62 (76%)attempts 27–10goals 3–1
- Niskanen – Orlov18:46
xG 0.92–0.13 (88%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Orpik – Jensen16:36
xG 1.01–0.42 (71%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).