Wed, Feb 27, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 116 | 07 | 113 | 236 |
| TOR | 110 | 414 | 112 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:06EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 18:02TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Jake Muzzin, Connor Brown · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 1:09TORMitch MarnerAssists: Zach Hyman, Ron Hainsey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 2:26TORAndreas JohnssonGWGAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 4:50TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 8:09TORAndreas JohnssonPPAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 0:25TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–6
- P3 16:06EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:04TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:57EDMAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:07EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:39EDMColby Cave: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:12TORAuston Matthews: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:47EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:51EDMMatt Benning: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Rieder – Draisaitl2:07
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid5:02
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Lucic – Cave – Currie10:56
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Malone – Kassian3:37
xG 0.02–0.12 (15%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom14:39
xG 0.82–0.64 (56%)attempts 20–19goals 0–1
- Sekera – Benning12:15
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Benning2:26
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner12:26
xG 0.84–0.63 (57%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews9:14
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Ennis – Gauthier – Moore8:26
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Marleau – Brown – Nylander10:37
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Dermott3:09
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Rielly2:22
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov8:39
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).