Wed, Feb 27, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 214 | 18 | 06 | 12 | 430 |
| NYR | 09 | 317 | 09 | 01 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 14:57TBLJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 0:56NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Tony DeAngelo · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 2:53TBLDan GirardiAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 3:23NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Fredrik Claesson, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 14:14NYRBoo NievesAssists: Ryan Strome, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 3:25TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:04TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:33NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:28NYRPavel Buchnevich: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:28TBLYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:28NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:00TBLJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:42TBLRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P2 10:42TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:57TBLJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00NYRPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:03TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point14:02
xG 1.05–0.55 (66%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli7:31
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne6:06
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Miller9:24
xG 0.27–0.64 (29%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev11:00
xG 0.88–0.44 (67%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Cernak12:14
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Girardi – Hedman15:32
xG 0.25–0.93 (21%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Lemieux – Andersson6:35
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Namestnikov10:34
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey10:15
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Brickley – Fast – Andersson2:13
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo2:25
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pionk10:05
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Claesson9:35
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).