Thu, Feb 28, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Florida Panthers 5, Vegas Golden Knights 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 311 | 116 | 110 | 00 | 0 | 537 |
| VGK | 114 | 320 | 18 | 04 | 1 | 646 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09VGKPaul StastnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 14:34FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 18:31FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 18:59FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 7:40VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 14:22VGKJon MerrillAssists: Shea Theodore, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 16:09VGKColin MillerAssists: Nate Schmidt, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 19:06FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jamie McGinn, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–4
- P3 3:18FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Mike Matheson, Dryden Hunt · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–4
- P3 15:42VGKReilly SmithAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 2. VGK William Karlsson stopped
- 3. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 4. VGK Shea Theodore scored
- 5. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:52VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:23VGKJon Merrill: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:53FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:53VGKMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:38VGKWilliam Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:24FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- OT 5:00VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Hunt – Borgstrom7:29
xG 0.49–0.26 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hawryluk9:45
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov11:23
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Vatrano10:05
xG 0.19–0.74 (21%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – McCoshen11:23
xG 0.71–0.27 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad21:27
xG 1.12–0.86 (57%)attempts 16–28goals 2–1
- Yandle – Pysyk15:59
xG 0.83–1.03 (45%)attempts 12–24goals 1–2
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone15:55
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 23–4goals 1–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek4:21
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:57
xG 0.98–0.98 (50%)attempts 23–11goals 2–2
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch11:07
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Theodore2:53
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Engelland – Merrill2:33
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore16:11
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).