Thu, Feb 28, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 4, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 15 | 113 | 15 | 433 |
| LAK | 28 | 113 | 07 | 02 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Sean Walker, Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:28LAKBrendan LeipsicPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 14:48DALTyler SeguinAssists: Taylor Fedun, Ben Lovejoy · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 6:14DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 11:46LAKAnze KopitarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 9:53DALRadek FaksaAssists: Blake Comeau, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- OT 3:19DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:36LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:49DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:05LAKAustin Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:42LAKKurtis MacDermid: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:18DALBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P3 2:36LAKDustin Brown: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:43DALRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Faksa – Janmark9:47
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Spezza – Nichushkin – L'Esperance3:31
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Gurianov2:39
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Nichushkin5:42
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fedun6:54
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Lindell3:37
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen3:32
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Leipsic – Luff4:18
xG 0.36–0.05 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Toffoli9:31
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Wagner5:34
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Kempe – Iafallo5:36
xG 0.03–0.25 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Roy13:59
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Doughty – Forbort19:10
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).