Mon, Mar 4, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 311 | 111 | 210 | 632 |
| CGY | 012 | 116 | 19 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:50TORTyler EnnisPPAssists: Jake Muzzin, Kasperi Kapanen · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 17:15TORTyler EnnisAssists: Martin Marincin, Trevor Moore · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 18:51TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–0
- P2 4:11TORZach HymanAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 15:35CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–1
- P3 3:15TORTyler EnnisAssists: Trevor Moore, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–1
- P3 12:24CGYDerek RyanAssists: Mark Giordano, Andrew Mangiapane · Deflected, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 12:56TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.01 xG6–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:07CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:25TORMartin Marincin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:24CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner14:24
xG 0.93–0.64 (59%)attempts 15–17goals 3–0
- Ennis – Gauthier – Moore8:23
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews12:53
xG 0.68–0.82 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Marleau – Brown – Nylander13:02
xG 0.12–0.58 (18%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly17:33
xG 1.39–1.01 (58%)attempts 20–25goals 3–0
- Muzzin – Zaitsev16:03
xG 0.69–0.53 (57%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Marincin – Ozhiganov12:18
xG 0.17–0.99 (14%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan9:44
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik10:55
xG 0.60–0.39 (60%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan14:01
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 0–3
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:15
xG 0.79–0.93 (46%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie19:48
xG 1.24–0.93 (57%)attempts 25–17goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington16:16
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Hanifin16:39
xG 1.15–0.95 (55%)attempts 25–15goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).