Tue, Mar 5, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 4, Nashville Predators 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 112 | 16 | 214 | 01 | 0 | 433 |
| NSH | 19 | 18 | 28 | 00 | 1 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48NSHCraig SmithAssists: Rocco Grimaldi, Matt Donovan · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 15:25MINKevin FialaAssists: Greg Pateryn · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 13:38NSHBrian BoylePPAssists: P.K. Subban, Viktor Arvidsson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 17:49MINPontus AbergAssists: Jordan Greenway, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 2:25MINEric FehrAssists: Marcus Foligno · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 2:59NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Ellis, Rocco Grimaldi · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 8:21NSHViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 17:42MINKevin FialaAssists: Zach Parise, Eric Staal · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. MIN Kevin Fiala stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 4. MIN Pontus Aberg stopped
- 5. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 6. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 7. NSH Ryan Johansen scored
- 8. MIN Ryan Donato stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:29NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- P2 12:26MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:29NSHMatt Irwin: Holding2 min
- P3 12:29NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min
- OT 2:11NSHMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFehr – Foligno – Brown8:19
xG 0.43–0.10 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Aberg – Donato – Eriksson Ek5:53
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Aberg – Greenway – Eriksson Ek4:02
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Zucker – Donato6:29
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon22:41
xG 0.97–0.25 (80%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Brodin14:47
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 13–23goals 2–1
- Bitetto – Hunt9:53
xG 0.51–0.75 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson14:11
xG 0.85–0.62 (58%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Boyle – Jarnkrok – Sissons7:32
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Granlund – Sissons4:11
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bonino – Simmonds – Grimaldi7:45
xG 0.47–0.44 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Subban – Ekholm21:16
xG 0.95–0.98 (49%)attempts 24–19goals 0–2
- Josi – Ellis17:52
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Donovan – Irwin10:49
xG 0.42–0.74 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).