Tue, Mar 5, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Detroit Red Wings 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 08 | 25 | 02 | 323 |
| COL | 06 | 117 | 29 | 12 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:47DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Thomas Vanek, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 1:44COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Carl Soderberg, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:22DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Jacob de la Rose, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 8:30COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 17:43DETFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:25COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:29COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:45COLDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:18DETAndreas Athanasiou: Holding2 min
- P2 5:39DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:56COLPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:45DETMichael Rasmussen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:18COLColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin10:58
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – de la Rose – Rasmussen5:50
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Helm8:48
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Zadina8:08
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson12:43
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Hronek18:56
xG 0.44–0.38 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Bowey14:49
xG 0.29–0.54 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Calvert – Jost6:04
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Dries4:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Compher10:17
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:22
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov11:33
xG 0.71–0.30 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Johnson – Girard14:44
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).