Tue, Mar 5, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 3, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 09 | 210 | 331 |
| ARI | 17 | 08 | 08 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Josh Manson, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:32ARILawson CrouseAssists: Josh Archibald, Kevin Connauton · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 3:46ANAAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 11:15ANATroy TerryPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:35ARIConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:34ARIJosh Archibald: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:56ANARyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:02ANAJosh Manson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:58ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Interference2 min
- P2 9:05ANADaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:49ANASam Steel: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:36ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:19ARIMario Kempe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:00ANAAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cousins won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Roy9:29
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Henrique – Rakell – Terry2:18
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kesler – Rowney – Jones7:08
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Henrique – Sprong – Terry3:45
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Megna8:33
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Fowler – Megna4:59
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson2:32
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Dvorak – Crouse6:08
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Kempe – Fischer – Garland6:13
xG 0.01–0.03 (29%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Archibald – Cousins – Galchenyuk2:17
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Keller7:14
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson9:13
xG 0.57–0.14 (81%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun12:21
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson3:31
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).