Thu, Mar 7, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 213 | 010 | 28 | 431 |
| OTT | 112 | 117 | 08 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44NYIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Leo Komarov, Nick Leddy · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:00OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Ben Harpur, Anthony Duclair · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 15:24NYIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 9:13OTTOscar LindbergAssists: Brian Gibbons, Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 12:29NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Adam Pelech, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
- P3 19:11NYICasey CizikasENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 5:32NYIJohnny Boychuk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:11OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:10OTTChristian Wolanin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:47NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:11OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:11NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:11OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindberg won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDal Colle – Barzal – Beauvillier10:48
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Komarov – Cizikas – Johnston9:05
xG 0.53–0.52 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Filppula – Eberle – Kuhnhackl11:34
xG 0.40–0.54 (42%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson10:54
xG 0.06–0.59 (10%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock15:42
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Leddy – Mayfield7:37
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Toews5:50
xG 0.07–0.39 (14%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Duclair – Tkachuk11:17
xG 0.75–0.08 (90%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Ryan – Smith – White11:05
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Paajarvi – Lindberg – Gibbons3:53
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Tierney – Balcers7:15
xG 0.08–0.28 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot15:25
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Ceci – Wolanin16:21
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – DeMelo2:23
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).