Thu, Mar 7, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Montréal Canadiens 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 116 | 114 | 09 | 239 |
| SJS | 25 | 110 | 210 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55SJSTomas HertlUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:00SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:56MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nate Thompson, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 7:46SJSJoe ThorntonGWGAssists: Kevin Labanc, Marcus Sorensen · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 15:18MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Paul Byron, Max Domi · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 6:08SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joonas Donskoi · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 19:54SJSGustav NyquistENAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–5
Penalties (1)
- P2 5:15SJSRadim Simek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Shaw – Domi13:17
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault13:32
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weise – Lehkonen8:54
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Weal – Armia – Drouin12:04
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete17:33
xG 0.95–0.54 (64%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
- Benn – Folin13:12
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak17:33
xG 0.96–0.84 (53%)attempts 23–16goals 2–3
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Couture – Nyquist9:21
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Haley – Goodrow – Karlsson8:53
xG 0.23–0.21 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc10:32
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Nyquist – Donskoi – Hertl5:33
xG 0.16–0.36 (32%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Simek17:38
xG 0.65–0.73 (47%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:22
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun2:18
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).