Sat, Mar 9, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 18 | 15 | 219 |
| BOS | 012 | 114 | 25 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:11BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 11:08OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 2:46OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Chris Tierney · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 8:47BOSChris WagnerAssists: Torey Krug, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 19:15BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Danton Heinen, Matt Grzelcyk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:32BOSDanton Heinen: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:28OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:07BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:58OTTAnthony Duclair: Holding2 min
- P2 2:27BOSMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:04OTTMagnus Paajarvi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:54OTTDylan DeMelo: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:54BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Lindberg – Gibbons6:19
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – Smith – White9:26
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Pageau – Duclair – Tkachuk10:55
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Paajarvi – Tierney – Balcers8:42
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Wolanin16:30
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- DeMelo – Chabot14:34
xG 0.37–0.71 (34%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Harpur10:28
xG 0.04–0.43 (9%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Coyle – Cehlarik7:22
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari7:36
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Heinen3:36
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Wagner2:51
xG 0.05–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy14:10
xG 0.64–0.40 (61%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Krug – Carlo10:39
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo2:26
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).