Sat, Mar 9, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 116 | 112 | 112 | 340 |
| EDM | 010 | 09 | 214 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:46TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: John Tavares, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:28TORJohn TavaresAssists: Zach Hyman, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 3:00TORJake MuzzinGWGAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 18:21EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 19:07EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:17EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:49EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00TORFrederik Gauthier: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:24TORZach Hyman: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:26TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P3 11:49TORJake Muzzin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner11:59
xG 1.02–0.43 (70%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews13:11
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Nylander9:36
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ennis – Brown – Gauthier4:36
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly13:39
xG 1.29–0.57 (70%)attempts 28–14goals 0–0
- Rielly – Ozhiganov2:37
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Zaitsev15:29
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins2:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rieder – Nugent-Hopkins2:47
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid8:29
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Khaira – Cave – Currie3:46
xG 0.18–0.19 (48%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Larsson2:04
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:43
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse12:21
xG 0.81–0.92 (47%)attempts 12–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).