Sun, Mar 10, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Calgary Flames 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 28 | 012 | 328 |
| CGY | 314 | 114 | 27 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:37CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Michael Frolik, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 14:40VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Alex Tuch, Cody Eakin · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 18:58CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Michael Frolik, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 0:21VGKReilly SmithAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 1:20VGKMark StoneAssists: Paul Stastny, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P2 19:38CGYMikael BacklundPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Austin Czarnik · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 15:43CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 17:28CGYMatthew TkachukENAssists: Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:06CGYSam Bennett: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:00CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:00VGKColin Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:00CGYSam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:50VGKJon Merrill: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00VGKMalcolm Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:52
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone11:49
xG 0.95–0.72 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Pirri – Eakin – Tuch7:58
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carpenter – Bellemare9:50
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Schmidt16:12
xG 0.99–0.60 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- McNabb – Theodore14:02
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Merrill – Miller13:15
xG 0.38–0.63 (37%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:18
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 3–1
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan10:31
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:08
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik10:06
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin17:47
xG 1.04–0.76 (58%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Andersson – Fantenberg15:25
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie17:09
xG 0.64–0.77 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).