Mon, Mar 11, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Arizona Coyotes 1, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 16 | 09 | 010 | 125 |
| CHI | 211 | 416 | 17 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27ARIRichard PanikAssists: Christian Dvorak · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 6:38CHIBrendan PerliniAssists: Brent Seabrook, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 8:09CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Erik Gustafsson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 3:16CHIBrendan PerliniAssists: Dylan Strome, Dominik Kahun · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 6:26CHIChris KunitzAssists: David Kampf, Marcus Kruger · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 8:50CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Dominik Kahun · Snap, 0.15 xG1–5
- P2 14:08CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–6
- P3 19:56CHIBrendan PerliniAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–7
Penalties (4)
- P2 14:08ARIJakob Chychrun: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 15:03CHIErik Gustafsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:11ARIJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:44CHIGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kempe won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Panik – Dvorak – Keller11:58
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Archibald – Cousins – Crouse5:13
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse5:23
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Cousins – Galchenyuk – Fischer7:00
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Demers – Oesterle14:47
xG 0.37–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Demers – Chychrun2:38
xG 0.03–0.16 (15%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Oesterle4:25
xG 0.06–0.31 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPerlini – Strome – DeBrincat10:39
xG 0.88–0.10 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Toews – Saad – Sikura13:53
xG 0.92–0.46 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Kahun9:43
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Kampf10:45
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Gustafsson19:31
xG 1.03–0.28 (79%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom14:43
xG 1.02–0.51 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 3–1
- Seabrook – Forsling14:04
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).