Mon, Mar 11, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 114 | 210 | 333 |
| COL | 014 | 011 | 013 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:07CARDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 7:08CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 17:33CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brett Pesce · Backhand, 0.76 xG3–0
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:28CARBrock McGinn: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:30CARCalvin de Haan: Delaying game2 min
- P2 2:03COLAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:55CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho13:41
xG 0.86–0.47 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele5:55
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark10:39
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Svechnikov10:31
xG 0.34–0.65 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – van Riemsdyk11:13
xG 0.86–0.36 (71%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk2:19
xG 0.02–0.05 (30%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Pesce14:55
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Wilson – Rantanen6:14
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Compher5:04
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:08
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Bourque – Agozzino – Andrighetto4:12
xG 0.04–0.03 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Nemeth3:08
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Cole – Barrie10:11
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Girard2:19
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).