Mon, Mar 11, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 111 | 111 | 00 | 230 |
| EDM | 28 | 014 | 010 | 11 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Alex Chiasson, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:02EDMMatt BenningAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zack Kassian · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 11:29NYRBrendan LemieuxAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 1:33NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Brendan Lemieux · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 0:35EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:01NYRBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:31EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:31NYRBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:41NYRConnor Brickley: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 1:41NYRConnor Brickley: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:41EDMKyle Brodziak: Instigator2 min
- P3 1:41EDMKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:41EDMKyle Brodziak: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:20NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:14EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:03NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Zibanejad – Namestnikov6:55
xG 0.37–0.15 (70%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Namestnikov – Chytil4:16
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Namestnikov2:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brickley – Vesey – Nieves4:17
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Pionk18:40
xG 1.08–0.70 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Claesson13:57
xG 0.60–0.83 (42%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Smith – Skjei16:42
xG 0.26–1.00 (21%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira11:40
xG 0.86–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Cave9:47
xG 0.90–0.58 (61%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Malone – Currie5:03
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid17:29
xG 0.39–1.19 (25%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Larsson9:56
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning6:10
xG 0.29–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Sekera – Russell6:08
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).