Fri, Mar 15, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Anaheim Ducks 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 312 | 214 | 537 |
| COL | 216 | 013 | 115 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:54COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: J.T. Compher, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:10COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 6:08ANACorey PerryAssists: Cam Fowler, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 7:23ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Daniel Sprong, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 13:40ANADaniel SprongAssists: Jaycob Megna, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 8:42COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Ian Cole, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 19:03ANACorey PerryPPGWGAssists: Nick Ritchie, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
- P3 19:37ANAHampus LindholmENAssists: Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:49ANARyan Getzlaf: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:19ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:19COLMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:36COLPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:21ANACarter Rowney: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:09ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
- P3 17:39COLMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Ritchie – Sprong7:37
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Perry – Henrique – Terry10:21
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Shore10:33
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Jones8:03
xG 0.02–0.56 (4%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Megna9:10
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Manson – Lindholm18:19
xG 0.39–0.82 (32%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Fowler – Larsson17:23
xG 0.54–1.11 (33%)attempts 15–21goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Compher – MacKinnon11:55
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Calvert – Kerfoot – Jost9:18
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Agozzino – Andrighetto4:43
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Rantanen8:50
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Nemeth2:30
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Barrie – Zadorov3:25
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov9:09
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).