Fri, Mar 15, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 1, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 09 | 010 | 125 |
| CGY | 113 | 25 | 214 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:10NYRNeal PionkAssists: Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:56CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 4:06CGYGarnet HathawayAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Derek Ryan · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 5:12CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–4
- P3 9:49CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:31CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:49NYRBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:49CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:50NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:31NYRVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:47NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:47CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:38NYRBrett Howden: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:16CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:42CGYMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Namestnikov – Chytil7:56
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Brickley – Buchnevich – Howden2:11
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brickley – Strome – Lemieux2:15
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Lemieux – Howden2:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo4:16
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith6:15
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Skjei – DeAngelo2:45
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:45
xG 0.88–0.14 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 3–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Ryan5:12
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik4:00
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Mangiapane – Czarnik3:08
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Fantenberg14:13
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin12:30
xG 1.04–0.64 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie14:20
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).