Sat, Mar 16, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 3, Arizona Coyotes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 14 | 112 | 07 | 12 | 325 |
| ARI | 111 | 112 | 07 | 00 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:38EDMConnor McDavidSHAssists: Alex Chiasson, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 18:24ARIAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:52EDMMatt BenningAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 5:04ARIAlex GalchenyukAssists: Nick Cousins, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 0:58EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:44EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:34ARIChristian Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:52EDMZack Kassian: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 7:40EDMZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P2 9:02ARIAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P2 16:40EDMColby Cave: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:54ARIRichard Panik: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:17EDMMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Kempe
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCave – Currie – Gambardella5:40
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Kassian – McDavid8:00
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl9:27
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid4:28
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse16:37
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning9:24
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Larsson – Klefbom14:15
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Galchenyuk – Garland8:12
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse7:30
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza11:59
xG 0.37–0.35 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Panik – Dvorak – Keller8:40
xG 0.09–0.40 (18%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson13:14
xG 0.76–0.41 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Oesterle3:53
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Demers – Chychrun3:47
xG 0.02–0.02 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).