Sat, Mar 16, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 114 | 16 | 210 | 430 |
| SJS | 010 | 211 | 05 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07NSHColton SissonsAssists: Craig Smith, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 4:09SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joakim Ryan · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 4:33NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:36SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 7:02NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Matt Irwin, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 18:54NSHViktor ArvidssonENAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:00NSHMatt Irwin: Interference2 min
- P1 5:59SJSBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:59SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:59NSHWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:16NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:09NSHColton Sissons: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:59SJSJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:59NSHColton Sissons: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:36NSHRoman Josi: Interference2 min
- P2 16:36SJSTimo Meier: Embellishment2 min
- P3 11:00SJSKevin Labanc: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Jarnkrok – Sissons7:18
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Bonino – Simmonds – Granlund9:53
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Grimaldi – Gaudreau7:03
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:13
xG 0.42–0.59 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin6:52
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm2:48
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis13:07
xG 0.33–0.48 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Kane – Hertl10:18
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Meier8:17
xG 0.76–0.59 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–3
- Haley – Goodrow – Karlsson6:48
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:13
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan12:28
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Braun – Dillon7:38
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Heed4:15
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).