Sun, Mar 17, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
St. Louis Blues 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 111 | 17 | 06 | 1 | 333 |
| BUF | 210 | 111 | 012 | 01 | 2 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Zach Bogosian, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:12STLPatrick MaroonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 14:48BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Alex Nylander, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 7:46BUFConor ShearyAssists: Alex Nylander, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 12:15STLDavid PerronAssists: Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 8:41STLBrayden SchennAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Eichel scored
- 2. STL Tyler Bozak scored
- 3. BUF Conor Sheary stopped
- 4. STL David Perron stopped
- 5. BUF Sam Reinhart scored
- 6. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:00BUFBrandon Montour: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:07STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P2 16:28STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:54BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 6:47BUFEvan Rodrigues: Interference2 min
- P3 6:47STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bozak – Thomas12:16
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Schenn13:00
xG 0.58–0.75 (44%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- MacEachern – Sanford – Barbashev4:55
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Schwartz – Sundqvist9:51
xG 0.02–0.40 (5%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko13:20
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo4:55
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn17:20
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Rodrigues – Nylander9:47
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel14:55
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Thompson – Mittelstadt8:16
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons10:24
xG 0.16–0.45 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dahlin14:57
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Ristolainen15:11
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Scandella – Nelson13:04
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).