Sun, Mar 17, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 16 | 16 | 319 |
| VGK | 214 | 111 | 39 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:40VGKMark StoneAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 13:14EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 19:05VGKCody EakinAssists: Tomas Nosek, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 0:22EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 2:12VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 0:40VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 5:52EDMKris RussellAssists: Sam Gagner, Jujhar Khaira · Snap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 9:45VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Shea Theodore, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–5
- P3 16:32VGKAlex TuchUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:36VGKColin Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:25EDMColby Cave: Holding2 min
- P1 16:37EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P3 11:38EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid2:07
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Gagner – Nugent-Hopkins2:30
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl3:39
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid9:54
xG 0.19–0.34 (35%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Russell – Nurse19:13
xG 0.48–1.06 (31%)attempts 13–21goals 2–4
- Sekera – Benning13:41
xG 0.15–1.06 (12%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
- Larsson – Klefbom16:09
xG 0.28–1.36 (17%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone13:04
xG 1.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 21–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carpenter – Bellemare8:13
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Eakin – Nosek – Tuch8:39
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:05
xG 0.60–0.58 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller16:04
xG 1.30–0.17 (88%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- McNabb – Theodore14:32
xG 1.07–0.29 (79%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Engelland – Schmidt17:43
xG 1.10–0.56 (66%)attempts 23–9goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).