Mon, Mar 18, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Arizona Coyotes 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 011 | 011 | 129 |
| TBL | 18 | 010 | 36 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03ARIClayton KellerAssists: Christian Dvorak, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 6:54TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 0:44TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 19:15TBLAnthony CirelliENUnassisted · Slap, 0.47 xG1–3
- P3 19:51TBLYanni GourdeENAssists: Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:44TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:18TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:18ARIRichard Panik: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:50ARIAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:21TBLSteven Stamkos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kempe won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Galchenyuk – Garland12:23
xG 0.64–0.10 (87%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Panik – Dvorak – Keller11:01
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza12:32
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Kempe – Archibald – Crouse9:09
xG 0.53–0.68 (44%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Ekman-Larsson16:34
xG 0.58–0.17 (78%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Chychrun12:31
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Oesterle2:06
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli4:46
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Miller9:44
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli5:17
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Gourde – Paquette – Erne8:01
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev17:50
xG 0.90–0.36 (72%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev2:28
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Rutta11:45
xG 0.33–0.58 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).