Wed, Mar 20, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 3, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 010 | 25 | 323 |
| ANA | 08 | 011 | 010 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:56WPGMark ScheifelePPGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Jacob Trouba · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–0
- P3 4:25WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Tyler Myers, Andrew Copp · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 7:07WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Joe Morrow, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.04 xG3–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:55ANAMax Jones: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:04ANACorey Perry: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:35WPGDmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:38ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:27WPGJoe Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:27ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:27ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P2 10:26WPGTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:17ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:17WPGBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:17ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:46WPGDmitry Kulikov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:37WPGMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min
- P3 19:22WPGDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shore won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Copp – Roslovic7:02
xG 0.33–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Ehlers – Connor7:16
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine11:08
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Little – Lowry – Tanev7:42
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Niku11:41
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov14:43
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Morrow – Trouba7:40
xG 0.18–0.32 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Ritchie – Sprong6:25
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Shore – Rowney2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Jones5:40
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell3:37
xG 0.06–0.13 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm10:52
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Fowler – Welinski13:06
xG 0.64–0.62 (51%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
- Holzer – Megna9:42
xG 0.03–0.57 (4%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).