Thu, Mar 21, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 010 | 415 | 632 |
| CAR | 213 | 16 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:51CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:32CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 19:34TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 6:34CARJordan StaalAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 3:35TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 10:09TBLRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 16:36TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 18:55TBLRyan McDonaghENUnassisted · Snap, 0.44 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:43CARNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:42TBLCedric Paquette: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:09TBLYanni Gourde: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P1 14:09CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:54CARLucas Wallmark: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:11TBLJan Rutta: Holding2 min
- P2 6:12CARDougie Hamilton: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:55TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:55CARWarren Foegele: Embellishment2 min
- P3 10:24CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:21CARMicheal Ferland: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Paquette – Joseph3:03
xG 0.47–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Callahan – Miller – Paquette3:18
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Miller7:17
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Callahan – Gourde – Paquette3:01
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev10:45
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Coburn – Rutta10:20
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Hedman – Cernak2:24
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho8:29
xG 0.77–0.30 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Ferland – Martinook – Wallmark5:59
xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Svechnikov9:02
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- McKegg – McGinn – Foegele6:47
xG 0.12–0.71 (15%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Pesce12:14
xG 0.94–0.58 (62%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk11:45
xG 0.46–0.39 (55%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Hamilton – Slavin12:31
xG 0.49–0.54 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).