Thu, Mar 21, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 1, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 09 | 05 | 119 |
| CGY | 211 | 110 | 215 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:30OTTDylan DeMeloAssists: Anthony Duclair, Brian Gibbons · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 8:54CGYMark GiordanoSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 11:15CGYGarnet HathawayGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 9:00CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Derek Ryan, Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 11:23CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Michael Frolik, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 18:33CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Michael Frolik, Rasmus Andersson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:08CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:29OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:06OTTZack Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:13CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 4:36CGYMichael Frolik: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Lindberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Lindberg – Veronneau – Tkachuk8:15
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Abramov7:46
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Chlapik – Veronneau – Tkachuk2:55
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Ryan – Chlapik – Balcers7:05
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWolanin – Brannstrom3:50
xG 0.47–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Brannstrom2:48
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Wolanin11:45
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:30
xG 1.20–0.24 (83%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan9:56
xG 0.68–0.39 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:46
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik4:36
xG 0.17–0.25 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:41
xG 1.47–0.87 (63%)attempts 21–15goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin13:27
xG 0.83–0.28 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Andersson – Fantenberg15:47
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).